Methodology

Model

Cenet’s model is proprietary — designed, built and tuned in-house, and the recipe stays in-house. It studies every game on the slate across form, matchups, prices, availability and signals we don’t talk about, and reduces each game to one number: the probability the pick wins. We don’t publish how it works. We publish what it picks, before the games start, and every result after they end. Judge it by the record.

How to read the board

Every pick carries its win probability and a tier — S is the model’s highest conviction, then A, then B. A parlay’s chance is the product of its legs’ probabilities, and the slip shows the combined number and the payout.

Independence

The board is the model’s own work — no bought tips, no copied picks, no tout sheets. Every input is gathered fresh each morning, and the same process runs every day, win or lose.

Cadence

A new board is published every morning and lands by 10:30am ET, before the day's games. Finals are settled overnight from official scores, and every result — wins and losses — stays on the Results page.

The record, honestly

The headline record counts every published pick, including heavy favorites — a -2000 moneyline is still a pick the model made. The stricter test is the priced record: flat-staking every pick that carried a book price. Both numbers live on the Results page, updated daily.

So far: 189-43 (81% hit rate), priced ROI -4.3% across 84 priced picks.

Calibration — when the model says a number, it should happen about that often:

• 50–60%said ~57%won 88% (n=8)
• 60–70%said ~64%won 58% (n=38)
• 70–80%said ~75%won 90% (n=68)
• 80–90%said ~85%won 83% (n=76)
• 90–100%said ~92%won 86% (n=42)